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| Risk Factors and Nomogram Prediction Model for Intracranial Infection after Artificial Dura Mater Patch Implantation |
| FENG Jixiang, ZENG Lei, JIANG Xiaolong, et al |
| Nanchang University, Nanchang Jiangxi 330031 |
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Abstract 【Objective】 To investigate the risk factors for intracranial infection following artificial dura mater patch implantation (ADMP) and to establish a risk prediction model.【Methods】 The clinical data of 231 patients who underwent ADMP were retrospectively analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for postoperative intracranial infection, and a nomogram prediction model was constructed based on the results. The model's performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).【Results】 Among the 231 patients, 23 cases (9.96%) developed intracranial infection. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that prolonged operative time, graft type, preoperative infection history, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leakage were independent risk factors for postoperative intracranial infection (P<0.05). The nomogram model demonstrated an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.933. The calibration curve indicated good agreement between predicted and observed risks of intracranial infection. Decision curve analysis showed that the model could effectively improve the accuracy of clinical decision-making.【Conclusion】 Prolonged operative time, graft type, preoperative infection history, and CSF leakage significantly increase the risk of intracranial infection after ADMP. The prediction model based on these factors exhibits good discrimination and calibration, providing valuable reference for early identification of high-risk patients and optimization of clinical management strategies.
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Received: 25 April 2025
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2025, Vol. 42 
