妊娠早期妊娠期糖尿病预测模型的构建与验证

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-7171.2025.04.021

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Abstract 【Objective】This study aims to develop a predictive model based on clinical factors and selected biochemical markers for the early risk assessment of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). 【Methods】The data of 1008 pregnant women admitted to the South Campus of Shanghai Sixth People's Hospital, which is affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University, from March 2021 to June 2022 were retrospectively analyzed, including 426 cases of gestational diabetes mellitus (the GDM group) and 582 cases of healthy pregnant women (the NGT group). The clinical data and related indicators in early pregnancy of all pregnant women were collected, multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the risk factors associated with GDM, and the prediction model was constructed and verified. 【Results】Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the age, fasting blood glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin, triglyceride, white blood cell count, hemoglobin, and neutrophil lymphocyte ratio of pregnant women were the risk factors for diabetes in pregnancy (P<0.05). Based on these information, the column chart model was constructed;The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of this model was 0.882 (95%CI:0.857-0.907), which indicated that the model had good predictive performance. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results showed χ²=7.147 and P=0.521, indicating good consistency between the predicted probability of GDM occurrence by the predictive model and the actual diagnosis probability. 【Conclusion】The model constructed in this study contains 7 independent variables to predict the occurrence of diabetes in the early pregnancy, which is helpful for clinical screening of high-risk GMD pregnant women, early intervention to reduce the occurrence of diabetes in pregnancy and reducing adverse complications.

Key words： Diabetes Gestational Pregnancy Trimester First Forecasting

Received: 22 November 2024

PACS:

R714.256

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	WANG Hexiang
	LIU Yanyan
	LU Huan

Cite this article:

WANG Hexiang,LIU Yanyan,LU Huan. Construction and Validation of Prediction Model for Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in Early Pregnancy[J]. JOURNAL OF CLINICAL RESEARCH, 2025, 42(4): 633-637.

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http://journal07.magtech.org.cn/yxlcyj/EN/10.3969/j.issn.1671-7171.2025.04.021 OR http://journal07.magtech.org.cn/yxlcyj/EN/Y2025/V42/I4/633

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