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| Construction and Evaluation of Nomograph Model for Predicting the Outcome of Frozen Thawed Embryo Transfer |
| LI Yuan-chun, MA Ying, ZHANG Ya-li,et al |
| Department of Obstetrics,Baoji Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital,Baoji Shaanxi 721000 |
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Abstract 【Objective】To explore the construction and evaluation of nomograph prediction model for the outcome of frozen thawed embryo transfer (FET). 【Methods】A total of 302 patients who underwent FET in our hospital from January 2019 to October 2020 were analyzed by regression. A total of 414 FET cycles were included. They were divided into pregnancy group (232 cycles) and non pregnancy group (182 cycles) according to the success of pregnancy. The clinical data of all patients were analyzed. The independent factors affecting the success of FET cycles were screened by multivariate logistic regression model,Independent influencing factors are incorporated into R software to establish nomograph prediction model,and the distinction and consistency between the model and the area evaluation model under ROC curve are internally verified by bootstrap method. 【Results】 There were 232 clinical pregnancies in 414 FET cycles,and the clinical pregnancy rate was 56.04% (232/414); Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age ＜ 30 years old,decreased artificial cycles and the number of high-quality embryos were the independent influencing factors of clinical pregnancy (P<0.05); The nomograph prediction model was established based on age,endometrial preparation scheme and the number of high-quality embryos. The internal verification results of bootstrap repeated sampling for 100 times showed that the predicted value of calibration curve was basically consistent with the actual value,Hosmer lemeshow goodness of fit test=4.842,P=0.774; The area under ROC curve was 0.783 (95%CI:0.738~0.827). 【Conclusion】The nomogram prediction model based on the independent influencing factors of clinical pregnancy rate of FET has good accuracy and differentiation,and can provide certain guiding value for the judgment of clinical pregnancy outcome of FET.
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Received: 31 December 2021
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2022, Vol. 39 
